Canadian PM’s Davos Speech : A Constructive Admission of Guilt

Canada’s new PM Mark Carney uses Davos to declare the ‘rules based order’ effectively dead and to pitch a middle power coalition strategy in which Canada positions itself as a resilient, plurilateral hub – explicitly including India as a key node in its diversification and ‘variable geometry’ web.

Core Strategic Message

Canadian PM Carney argues the post Cold War rules based order was always partly a ‘fiction’, sustained by middle powers’ willingness to ‘live within a lie’ about equal rules while the strongest exempted themselves. (India and the global South are aware since long, that the rules-based order much touted by the West, has rules which are patently unfair, and are applied unequally / selectively.)

He calls the current moment a ‘rupture, not a transition’, and explains this. Concluding that with this, sovereignty becomes ‘the ability to withstand pressure’, not just membership in institutions.

His Prescription : Middle powers must ‘take the sign down’, stop invoking a non functioning order, build domestic economic strength and act together through issue based coalitions rather than naive universal multilateralism or bilateral dependence on hegemons. (Do read Indian Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar’s two books – ‘The India Way : Strategies for an Uncertain World’ (2020) and ‘Why Bharat Matters’ (2024); they offer useful insights, suggest geopolitical strategies and India’s evolving global role.)

Middle power Strategy and Coalitions

Carney’s central conceptual move is ‘variable geometry’ : Different coalitions for different issues, based on overlapping interests and values rather than a single universal club. (India calls it multi-polarity.)

Examples he cites include : Being a core per capita contributor to Ukraine’s defence; reinforcing Arctic security with Nordic Baltic allies via over the horizon radar, submarines, aircraft and ‘boots on the ice’; and opposing tariffs over Greenland, while supporting Greenland / Denmark’s right to determine Greenland’s future. He argues middle powers must either compete bilaterally for hegemonic favour (which he calls ‘the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination’) or ‘combine to create a third path with impact’, using legitimacy, integrity and rules as collective power resources.

Readers may access the full speech and question answers (28 mins, Reuters) on :

Economic Web : Where India Fits

In trade and supply chains, he wants Canada embedded in a dense ‘web of connections’, warning that excluding major nodes like the USA, China, India, Mercosur (a South American regional trade bloc) or the EU is ‘a mistake’ that weakens resilience.

Specifically, Carney highlights :

• Negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, the Philippines and Mercosur, explicitly as part of Canada’s diversification agenda.

• Championing a bridge between the CPTPP and the EU to create a 1.5 billion people trading bloc, even where Canada’s gains are indirect but system shaping.

• Forming G7 anchored ‘buyers’ clubs’ in critical minerals to reduce dependence on concentrated suppliers, and coordinating with ‘like minded Democracies’ on AI, so countries are not forced to choose ‘between hegemons and hyperscalers’.

Implications for India

• India is placed in the top tier of ‘largest nodes’ in Carney’s connectivity logic, which conceptually treats India as an essential partner in any resilient middle power web rather than a marginal market.

• The reference to an India-Canada FTA track, even amid recent bilateral tensions, signals an intent to ring fence strategic economic engagement with India from great power politics and to use India to help dilute over dependence on any single hegemon or supply source.

• The speech effectively invites India into a future oriented, plurilateral middle power architecture (trade bridges, buyers’ clubs, AI governance coalitions, Arctic and critical mineral arrangements) where New Delhi can bargain not just bilaterally with Ottawa, but as a rule shaper in a broader club of ‘value based realist’ states.

Concluding thoughts

Canadian PM Carney truthfully speaks of ‘the gap between rhetoric and reality’. He speaks against the US led rules based order and offers a middle power playbook of shared resilience, diversified connectivity and issue specific coalitions – in which India is framed as an indispensable major node for trade, technology and supply chain strategy, rather than merely another bilateral partner.

This speech discusses the elephant in the room, and may indicate a turning point in international geopolitics.

(Courtesy : Article by Sanjay Agarwal)

(Sanjay Agarwal is a geopolitics analyst and Former Security Advisor, Ministry of Home Affairs, GoI.)

India is aware that the rules-based order much touted by the West, has rules which are unfair, and are applied unequally !