India’s bold diplomacy in SCO aims at countering Chinese dominance in Eurasia

Mr Gurjit Singh is a former Ambassador of India to Germany, Indonesia, ASEAN, Ethiopia and the African Union. He is an Honorary Professor of Humanities at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Indore. He Chairs the CII Business Task Force on Trilateral Cooperation in Africa. He comments on current events on TV and in journals. He is associated with the social impact investment movement and is working on expanding it in Africa.

China and Russia now see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an extension of their sphere of influence in the growing challenge to the US-led alliance, which India challenges.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual summit, hosted by the current chair, Kazakhstan, was held on July 3 and 4, 2024. Its theme was ‘Strengthening Multilateral Dialogue – Striving Towards a Sustainable Peace and Prosperity.’

The most significant part of that summit was the absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who did not attend for the first time since India joined the SCO in 2017. The onset of the first Parliament session of the 18^th Lok Sabha and the continuing Chinese obduracy on the border issue were critical inputs into this decision. A meeting with Russia would be achieved when PM Modi visits Moscow.

The summit was significant in that Iran attended as a full member, despite the unfortunate demise of its President. Iran’s acting President, Mohammad Mokhber, attended. Belarus, one of Russia’s remaining friends in Europe, was admitted as a full member.

From the original focus of the SCO as a Central Asia plus China and Russia organisation, it has now become a larger 10-country organisation with India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus, giving it a wider ambit. Some analysts believe that this dilutes the focus of the SCO.

China believes that it has a hold on its Central Asian neighbours

China believes that it has a hold on its Central Asian neighbours and has integrated them through the Belt and Road Initiative and other largesse. Russia is no longer the power that it used to be. China believes that it rules the roost in Central Asia and Pakistan. Therefore, China and Russia now see the SCO as an extension of their sphere of influence in the growing challenge to the US-led alliance.

Like the BRICS, the SCO is also seeking to expand to obtain greater heft for the Sino-Russian global view. As in BRICS, so in SCO, it is India that stands up to this push and attempts to strike a balance from the organisation’s perspective. PM Modi’s speech delivered by External Affairs Minister Jaishankar made this absolutely clear.

India’s focus on counterterrorism and other issues

India’s focus on counterterrorism, on supply chains, on respecting the sovereignty of countries, and bringing in its own agenda from its preceding SCO chairmanship as well as from the G20 programmes are notable. India’s priorities in SCO are shaped by a ‘SECURE’ SCO.

SECURE stands for ‘Security, Economic cooperation, Connectivity, Unity, Respect,’ for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and environmental protection.

India would like the SCO not to become a Chinese handmaiden. Where terrorism is concerned, India has rightly focused on that and its travails. China’s efforts to direct the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) into counter-terrorism of its peculiar understanding are countered by India. Though China and Pakistan were not named, the intent of the PM’s speech was clear : Cross-border terrorism and disrespect for other member states’ sovereignty and territorial integrity were not conducive to SCO solidarity.

The SCO has two remaining observers, Afghanistan and Mongolia, in its fold. As many as 14 countries – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bahrain, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and the UAE – are dialogue partners.

China is backing the entry of some ASEAN countries into BRICS

Seeing how China is backing the entry of some ASEAN countries into BRICS as it seeks to rapidly expand that group, it remains to be seen whether China would like to promote its acolytes like Cambodia from within ASEAN into SCO since they are unlikely to be included in BRICS. Of the SCO members, now four are in BRICS; from the dialogue partners, three more are in BRICS. Other than Brazil, Ethiopia, and South Africa, all other BRICS members are associated with the SCO. From South Asia, Bangladesh and Bhutan are yet outside SCO.

India has successfully tried to project the merits of the Chabahar port and the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), which brings Iran, Central Asia, and Russia along with India into one salient. This is a counter to the exclusive China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which China is struggling to complete. India’s association with the alternate CPEC is more open and welcoming to others.

India has often found itself isolated

Much as India’s approach to SCO has been courageous, while drafting SCO declarations, India has often found itself isolated and pushed into largely accepting what others believe is a consensus. India has understood that friends among the SCO – the Russians and Central Asians, for instance – are muted when it comes to challenging Chinese formulations in the declaration. This time, India succeeded in bringing several references of its choice into the declaration. This includes G20 themes like One Earth, One Family, and One Future, as well as digital public infrastructure, financial inclusion, the startup forum, and the Life for the Environment (LiFE) initiative. These were brought by India during its championship and built upon during its G20 Presidency.

Similarly, India has suggested norms on connectivity essentially to corner China and Pakistan on CPEC and bring forth the merits of its approach to Chabahar and the NSTC. That connectivity must be inclusive and non-discriminatory was emphasised.

The bold Indian diplomatic efforts

A paragraph on UN reforms is now more conducive to India’s point of view. A very strong paragraph on terrorism and cross-border terrorism, which also includes references to terror financing, is now there. In the past, China and Pakistan had vetoed this. But this time, India succeeded in nudging this by including a positive reference to the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT).

The bold Indian diplomatic efforts, despite being isolated, also showed that earlier formulations on biological weapons and arms in outer space were diluted. On several aspects, including these, Chinese-led phrases were removed through difficult negotiations. India this time took the offensive and insisted on each formulation being brought in, trading off its veto for even existing phrases that China wanted retained. China and its friends were ready to give in on some of them to accommodate India on some of its formulations.

India will have larger challenges ahead

India will have larger challenges as China will assume the chair and host the next Heads of State Council in 2025. Pakistan will host the Heads of Government Council in October 2024. These will bring opportunities for China and Pakistan to improve their approaches to India if
they want PM Modi to attend SCO leaders’ meetings hosted by them. If not, then India should have the Vice President attend the Heads of State Council and have a minister attend the Heads of Government Council as in the past. India wants to be in the SCO and make it effective and relevant, but its other members also need to have the same approach.

(Courtesy : www.firstpost.com, 8.7.2024)

Cross-border terrorism & disrespect for member states’ sovereignty & territorial integrity are not conducive to SCO solidarity !

————————————————————-

Rumble in South China Sea : Bellicose China versus law-abiding others

After months of blowing hot against the Philippines’ maritime forces over the South Thomas Shoal, communist China has on July 2 ‘agreed’ to the need to ‘restore trust’ and ‘rebuild confidence’ to better manage maritime disputes.

But is this a sincere offer of peace from Beijing, and should Manila trust the Communist Party of China or verify its words with its actions ? Tracing the history and recent developments of territorial and maritime disputes may help Manila draw the necessary lessons.

The first two decades of the 21st century saw relative peace if one looked at the world at large. While there was the now infamous global war on terror, the Arab Spring, and other disruptions, they were primarily confined to specific geographic pockets.

The events had little bearing on areas beyond the vicinity of such events. The third decade of this century couldn’t have been more disruptive worldwide. Covid-19 dramatically altered the mechanics.

Livelihoods were destroyed, and Nations were forced to rethink their futures. The over 2 years of the Russia-Ukraine war, illegal immigration taking an unprepared Europe by storm, the Hamas perpetrated conflict in the Levant, and lastly, the unpredictable and uncontrolled Houthis misadventures have had the world divided.

China’s flagrant violations of international rules, judgements from international tribunals, and belligerent behaviour in the South China Sea (SCS) add to the predicament.

The developed world is primarily distracted by events in Europe and the Arab region. Any change of status quo in SCS could perhaps lead to dark days and severely cripple the global economy.

(Courtesy : Read complete Article on www.firstpost.com of 11.7.2024 under the same title, written by Mr NC Bipindra)