India’s aggressive Foreign Policy and changing Diplomacy

1. India’s Minister of External Affairs Dr S Jaishankar’s global influence

Currently, an Indian has created fear in the world. Some will immediately name Modi, Putin, Joe Biden, Kim Jong Un, or Xi Jinping as the one, while others will not hesitate to name even Amit Shah or Rahul Gandhi, but this individual is different.

He has no political background, yet many are afraid to face this man. There is a Raj Thackeray in Maharashtra, whom even journalists are afraid to ask questions, but that’s not such a big deal. The fear of the individual that I am going to name and talk about here, is what makes the world and Indians proud.

Until recently, this Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer was running behind political leaders with files in his hand. Prime Minister Narendra Modi immediately appointed this officer as India’s Minister of External Affairs and MP in the Rajya Sabha as soon as he retired. Yes, right, it is Dr S Jaishankar ! By using the opportunity he got, he showed the power of Indians to all the countries at the global level. There are plenty of people who spread terror by using arms, but India getting a witty Foreign Minister and appointing him on the basis of intelligence may have been a rare occurence since independence.

After 2014-2015, Dr S Jaishankar, Ashwin Vaishnav, Hardeep Singh Puri, Ajit Doval, PK Mishra, and approximately 200 such officers of the Indian Administrative Service, Indian Police Service and Indian Foreign Service have been working systematically at various places. The results of their hard work is currently starting to show and will continue to show good results.

These are the people who are going to heal the wounds that are still burning in the form of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) for 75 years after Independence without even a war. Prime Minister Modi has rightly said, ‘War is not affordable in the current era, but worse conditions than war can be brought to bear upon a country or a determined target without a war’.

We are seeing a live example of this in the form of Pakistan. Even Pakistan has not understood that it has been destroyed by India, and even if it does, it cannot speak about it to the world. Though the world knows it too, this thorn has been removed very cleverly. The real fun is about to begin.

2. Pakistan on the brink of Civil War

Jinnah agreed to give Independence to what we currently see as Balochistan in Pakistan, but there too, like Kashmir, the people were infiltrated, and the region was occupied. Balochistan could experience freedom for just 8 days. Balochistan, which once gained Independence for only a little over 7 months, had become obsessed with getting independence later. Baloch people are not only in Balochistan but also in Iran and Afghanistan. The same is the case with the Pakhtunkhwa Province (formerly called NW Frontier Province). Like Pakistan, Afghanistan also has Pakhtuns.

Before Independence, the British demarcated the ‘Durand Line’ as the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to prevent Russian aggression. This line created a mess where half the Pakhtunkhwa Province went to Afghanistan and the other half to Pakistan.

Do you remember Frontier Gandhi (Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan) ? He is the one who fought in the freedom movement against the British. Frontier Gandhi had opposed Jinnah’s ‘Two-Nation Theory’. He wanted the Pakhtunkhwa Province to accede to India. If this was not to be possible, he agreed to the creation of a separate Pakhtun country, but Jinnah did not allow this to happen. Also, in the referendum regarding Partition, almost 100% people voted in favour of Partition, but Muslims agreed to stay in India instead of Pakistan. This means that this drama of Partition was played out to pamper a handful of people. Both the countries and their citizens had to pay the cost of this Partition in the form of loss of lives and property. Since 1947, Democracy has never really taken root in Pakistan. The fence itself has eaten the field and now there is a possibility of a Civil War in Pakistan soon.

3. China and Islamic countries unable to save Pakistan

Pakistan, which allowed Taliban terrorists to use its land, nurtured terrorism in return for a lot of money and other things. The Pakistani leadership thought it had the foresight that these elements would be useful to them in the future. Now they have to suffer its consequences.
For any country, its foreign policy and secret service are important. For years they would wait for the prey to come into their lair, and when it did, they would fall back. This leads to a loss of resources, as well as making the issue more complex. It also leads to loss of image in front of the world. This is no longer the case. Some things have happened, some things are being done and some things are yet to be done.

As time goes on, Pakistan will be in turmoil. The Taliban will start tearing through Pakistan like a hunting dog. As of now, terrorists nurtured by Pakistan only are exploding bombs all over Pakistan. It will be impossible for Pakistan, whose economic situation is poor, to raise the money needed to fight the Taliban. Even in such a situation, some countries are going to pretend to help Pakistan. By some countries, I mean China and Türkiye (especially, which paints the image of being the new messiah of Muslim community).

The Chinese leadership is worried about the failure of investment in Pakistan due to some reasons. The question remains about the Arab countries, which are surviving on crude oil and are currently showing that they are building an economy based on tourism. But who will go to these countries for tourism after another 30-40 years ? This is a big question.

4. India’s diplomacy challenges China

Are the present-day Arabs themselves actually going to live there ? Today, their constant push to invest in developing or developed countries is not hidden. India is their priority for investment. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, India defending the Russian stance has brought India and Russia closer.

By the way, China has also sided with Russia, but India is important to Russia because China is isolated in international politics and no significant decision is taken by the important countries of the world without India’s participation. Russia’s relations with India will always be better than China’s. At such a time, it is natural to increase trade relations between Russia and India. One of them is to supply natural gas and crude oil to India through pipelines. Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is the ‘cross point’ of all four countries – India, Russia, Pakistan and China. Even if India is cornered there, there is no other option than going through Balochistan (from China’s Kashgar) to reach the Gwadar port, and at least for now, India has influence in Balochistan.

Although the Indians do not know this, the Chinese know it very well.

5. If India takes control of PoK, there is a possibility that the anti-National gang will create instability

On the other hand, Gilgit-Baltistan is going to fall aside due to Taliban’s activities in Pakhtunkhwa. There will be agitations and then India will take control of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. Interestingly, while all this happens, China will be forced to remain silent, because to reach Gwadar Port from Beijing, it has to take the help of India.

Actually, when the complicated issue of PoK gets solved in such a simple way, an attempt will be made to create an environment similar to Article 370 (Article giving special status to the State of Jammu & Kashmir) in India. These people will have to live up to the favours of China, right ? Because there is a long term agenda to create instability in India for some reason or the other.

6. This is the time to annex PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan

After gaining power in Afghanistan, the Taliban is in a state of elation. Therefore, their ambition to make the Baloch and Pakhtunkhwa Provinces independent has been boosted. Pakistan is now politically and economically bankrupt. Also, there is a possibility that the situation could get out of hand any time.

As per India’s agenda, the time has come to take control over PoK. The task of boosting public opinion in this direction is going on in India. An atmosphere is being created that India can take PoK at any time. The work is going on which is required to make its impact at the international level.

People’s movement against Pakistan and China has started destabilising the atmosphere in Gilgit-Baltistan. The programme is also on to show that PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, and its people, are ready to join India after talking to leaders and intellectuals of the region. An overall favourable environment is being created. This is a part of India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. Overall, let’s hope that the good news of India getting back PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan will be fulfilled soon !

– Mr Sachin Dhok, Pune. (Facebook Post)

War is not affordable in today’s times, but worse conditions can be brought to bear upon a country without a war !