Possibility of cordial relations with India if ‘BNP’ comes to power in Bangladesh

India’s concerns may increase if ‘Jamaat-e-Islami’ is given a free hand

Dhaka (Bangladesh) – General elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on 12 February. After Awami League leader and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced out of the country, the present government under Muhammad Yunus imposed a ban on her party itself. With the elections barely 10–12 days away, these polls can be described as anti-democratic. In this backdrop, there is a strong possibility that the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), may form the government. Consequently, it is being said that Tarique Rahman, son of party chief and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, could become the next Prime Minister.

Significantly, after a prolonged exile of 17 years, Rahman returned to Dhaka from London on 25 December 2025. He had been living in London since 2008 following allegations related to corruption and security matters. After his return, he has begun projecting himself as the ‘leader of a new Bangladesh’. Following the large-scale political upheaval in 2024, the cases and convictions against Rahman were withdrawn.

Tarique Rahman likely extended a ‘hand of friendship’ towards India

Historically, the BNP has followed an anti-India line and remained inclined towards Pakistan. However, in the context of the 2026 elections, Rahman appears to have modified his stance. While raising the slogan of ‘Bangladesh First’, Rahman stated in a recent interview to the American magazine Time that hostility with India is not economically viable for Bangladesh. In this context, he has extended a ‘hand of friendship’ towards India. In December 2025, he also met India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar.

‘Jamaat-e-Islami’ a concern for India

During the BNP regime from 2001 to 2006, allegations were made that separatist groups from Northeast India were given shelter in Bangladesh. It has also repeatedly emerged that Tarique Rahman had traditional links with extremist organisations such as Jamaat-e-Islami. If he once again allows it free rein, India’s security could be threatened. However, in the current election process, the BNP has kept a distance from Jamaat-e-Islami.

Teesta river water-sharing remains a key dispute between India and Bangladesh

The unresolved issue of sharing the waters of the Teesta river continues to be a major point of contention between the two countries. The BNP has consistently targeted India on this issue. Whether Rahman adopts an aggressive posture on this matter after coming to power or seeks a solution through dialogue will determine the future trajectory of bilateral relations.

Will the ‘golden period’ come to an end

There is uncertainty over whether the ‘golden period’ of India–Bangladesh relations seen during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure will continue under Tarique Rahman. Nevertheless, considering the political pragmatism shown by Rahman, it is being assessed that instead of relations deteriorating completely, they may move towards a new phase of pragmatic and interest-based engagement.